“Gas prices are down,” Cruz declares — but the data shows a more complicated “Trump economy” snapshot
Sen. Ted Cruz is leaning hard into a simple message as Washington heads into another prime-time political moment: “Gas prices are down. Murder rates are down. Illegal border crossings are down. Don’t pay attention to the media, look at the substance.”
It’s the kind of post that spreads fast because it bundles three everyday stress points—filling up the tank, public safety, and the border—into one clean, confident claim. But when you pull the numbers, the “down” story depends on which comparison you’re making and which dataset you’re using. On at least one piece—gas—there’s clear evidence for part of the claim, with some important fine print.
Gas prices: down from last year, not necessarily down from last month
AAA’s national tracker shows the U.S. average for regular gas on Feb. 24, 2026 was about $2.95 a gallon. That’s lower than the same time last year (AAA lists one year ago at $3.164), which backs up the broad “down” vibe if you’re talking year-over-year.
But AAA’s own weekly report also notes something else: prices can bounce around seasonally, and they often climb as spring approaches and refiners shift toward summer-blend gasoline. In other words, the “gas is down” point looks strongest when the comparison is 2026 vs. 2025, not necessarily this week vs. last month (AAA’s page lists one month ago at $2.825, which is lower than today’s $2.95).
So if you’re a driver thinking, “It doesn’t feel down when I’m paying today,” that reaction can still be consistent with the year-over-year decline.
Border crossings: the trend is sharply lower, but monthly numbers still move
On the border, Pew Research Center recently highlighted a dramatic drop in Border Patrol encounters, noting the 2025 fiscal year total fell to levels not seen since 1970 in their historical series, and adding that monthly data shows an even steeper slowdown into Trump’s second term.
At the same time, CBP’s own public messaging shows the month-to-month picture can still zigzag. In a January 2026 release, CBP said it recorded 34,626 encounters nationwide and described that as a 13% increase from the prior period it referenced.
That doesn’t negate the broader downtrend versus the peak years—but it does underline how politically loaded it is to summarize the border with one word (“down”) without specifying the timeframe.
Murder rates: major city data and national estimates point the same direction
On violent crime, multiple independent trackers and media reports have pointed to a sizable decline in homicides during 2025. The Council on Criminal Justice reported the average homicide rate in its sample of cities was about 21% lower in 2025 than 2024. ABC News, citing national crime analyst Jeff Asher, also reported the U.S. was poised to end 2025 with roughly a ~20% decrease in homicides, based on preliminary reporting from hundreds of agencies.
That’s a real “down” indicator—but it’s also the kind of statistic that turns into a fight over credit: whether the decline began before policy changes, whether local factors drove it, and whether 2026 continues the trend.
